Why has no one done any analysis of 'futures' shorts or 'options' puts on TAO in the period leading up to the cash out? Quite honestly I do not even know if they exist as they are outside my ballpark. But if they do, they should be very closely examined for the possibility of 'untoward' activity. Let me be clear - I am NOT making any accusations here. I'm just stating that if exchange methodology for shorting TAO existed before this very public cash out, then it should be examined extensively and a report should be presented to the community.
Good point Martin, yes TAO perpetual futures are real, but as far as I know, options don't exist for TAO yet.
The futures market is plenty sufficient to profit from knowledge of a big crash. Binance and MEXC usually have the highest volume, you can check the raw data on CoinGlass.com: funding rates, OI, and long/short ratios going back through late March and early April.
It looks like TAO futures activity was clearly elevated around April 9, but the data points more to a highly leveraged market with a volatility spike after the announcement than to unusual short positioning ahead of it.
My guess is the $11M from the token dump was profit enough and they saw no need to add derivatives complexity, but if anyone in the community wants to dig in and present a clean timeline, that report would be genuinely valuable.
Brilliant breakdown, Brian. You completely cut through the noise. I agree 100%: shaking out opportunistic actors and forcing structural upgrades like lock-based ownership will ultimately make the TAO ecosystem much stronger. This is exactly the kind of stress test a maturing protocol needs. Thanks for keeping us up-to-date!
Thanks for the support Agisilaos! Glad it resonated. Outsiders are calling this a crisis but I see this as a blip, the ecosystem has dealt with harder things and moved on and I think this will be no different.
Why has no one done any analysis of 'futures' shorts or 'options' puts on TAO in the period leading up to the cash out? Quite honestly I do not even know if they exist as they are outside my ballpark. But if they do, they should be very closely examined for the possibility of 'untoward' activity. Let me be clear - I am NOT making any accusations here. I'm just stating that if exchange methodology for shorting TAO existed before this very public cash out, then it should be examined extensively and a report should be presented to the community.
Good point Martin, yes TAO perpetual futures are real, but as far as I know, options don't exist for TAO yet.
The futures market is plenty sufficient to profit from knowledge of a big crash. Binance and MEXC usually have the highest volume, you can check the raw data on CoinGlass.com: funding rates, OI, and long/short ratios going back through late March and early April.
It looks like TAO futures activity was clearly elevated around April 9, but the data points more to a highly leveraged market with a volatility spike after the announcement than to unusual short positioning ahead of it.
My guess is the $11M from the token dump was profit enough and they saw no need to add derivatives complexity, but if anyone in the community wants to dig in and present a clean timeline, that report would be genuinely valuable.
Brilliant breakdown, Brian. You completely cut through the noise. I agree 100%: shaking out opportunistic actors and forcing structural upgrades like lock-based ownership will ultimately make the TAO ecosystem much stronger. This is exactly the kind of stress test a maturing protocol needs. Thanks for keeping us up-to-date!
Thanks for the support Agisilaos! Glad it resonated. Outsiders are calling this a crisis but I see this as a blip, the ecosystem has dealt with harder things and moved on and I think this will be no different.